Why the sudden trade tension?
Modi was one of the first leaders to show up at DC after Trump came to power. So what irreconcilable differences are there?
During the 60s, the US was embroiled in the Vietnam War. They went to Vietnam thinking this would be like fighting in the plains of Europe. They were mistaken. They were introduced to guerrilla warfare, and there were parts of the Vietnamese Jungle that were impossible to penetrate.
Monsanto was manufacturing Polyurethane and DDT at the time. They came up with a chemical that would be called Agent Orange because it was stored in orange-striped drums. The company described it as a herbicide that could be used to defoliate.
The defending champions of the World War, who had recently destroyed Korea for good, found their military credentials being questioned by a group of rag-tag, poorly armed “rebels” in Vietnam. The Americans decided to use the chemical liberally.
76 million litres of it were dropped over Vietnam. It destroyed vast parts of the Vietnamese Jungles, and the health effects are felt even today. Oh! Also, Monsanto continues to sell Agent Orange to ranchers in Brazil who are clearing vast tracts of the Amazon.
Monsanto underwent a radical rebranding and reinvention after the Vietnam War in the 80s. The company projected itself as one that brought agricultural prosperity. They started producing high-yielding genetically modified seeds. But in true capitalistic style, they made it impossible for farmers to produce or use their seeds beyond one crop. The farmer needs to repurchase the seeds every season.
What is even more insidious is the herbicide regime that they suggest includes a chemical called Roundup. Roundup not just kill herbs; it kills everything. What it does can only be termed as ecocide. Any other plant, weed, herb or even bacteria cannot survive. The land becomes useless to grow any other seed but the one supplied by the corporation.
Hence,
In the face of U.S. efforts to require Mexico, under a trade agreement, to import genetically engineered corn, last week the Mexican legislature approved a constitutional amendment identifying native corn as “an element of national identity” and banning the planting of GE seeds. This brings to a head a clash over issues of food sovereignty and security, genetic integrity, health protection, and environmental safety.
In 2020, the Mexican government committed to phasing out the importation of genetically engineered (GE) corn by 2024. Mexico had also planned to ban by April 1, 2025, the weed killer glyphosate, integral to GE corn production—but recently delayed its decision. These actions by Mexico triggered vigorous pushback by the U.S., resulting in the formation of a panel under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) to decide which country was in the right. The USMCA, negotiated in 2018 during President Trump’s first term, replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement.
Source: Beyond Pesticide
The tensions with Mexico on trade have nothing to do with Fentanyl smuggling! It has everything to do with the poison the US is trying to sell to Mexico.
Agroecology, or the methods used to farm, has traditionally had ways to deal with weeds and pests. Humans have been farming for millennia. After the Second World War, the chemical factories that delivered victory had nothing to produce. They wanted something to kill, and they found weeds. But nobody needs them!
The farmers we work with are abandoning glyphosate one hectare at a time. With funding from Mexico’s National Research Council, we have built a team of 38 agroecology technicians and community leaders who are helping farmers develop the knowledge and skills they need to replace chemicals with other practices.
Our team supports farmers to plant legume cover crops to crowd out weeds, and we have provided thousands of weed whackers to make manual weed control quicker and easier. We are also teaching farmers to make their own products from inexpensive local materials, like agua de vidrio — a solution of ash and lime — that provides nutrients to plants and helps control pests and diseases.
Source: The Conversation
Monsanto was acquired by Bayer in 2018. Can you notice what is happening to their revenues?
Bayer revenue for the twelve months ending March 31, 2025 was $49.961B, a 2.15% decline year-over-year.
Bayer annual revenue for 2024 was $50.432B, a 2.18% decline from 2023.
Bayer annual revenue for 2023 was $51.558B, a 3.56% decline from 2022.
Bayer annual revenue for 2022 was $53.459B, a 2.5% increase from 2021.
Source: Macrotrends
Global Agriculture
Here are the top 20 countries in terms of cultivated land.
Land Use Statistics
Source: Wikipedia
Now go back and look news from the last year. If you search “US + Tariff” or “US + War”, you will find all the countries on that list. Why should the American President be bothered by what happens to Jair Bolsonaro? Well, he was allowing the use of Agent Orange in the Amazon jungles to turn them into agricultural fields!
We are fighting over food!
That is what this whole trade war posturing is about. If the world turns its back on the US, it will have no other choice but to feed the nation corn and soybeans.
From Guatemala to Syria, migration to the North is a result of war, and war is a result of falling agricultural yields.
The US wants more and more control over how food is produced across the planet, and the trade war is a proxy for that.
India bans a large array of genetically modified crops, and the government has also been making a push for more millets and other crops that are, most of all, indigenous. This does not jive well with “Big-Ag”.
The US practices some of the worst agroecology. According to Bill Bryson in his book ‘The Body’, “If you live anywhere in North America, you ingest about 80 micrograms of Cadmium each day and none of it does any good to your body”.
Cadmium is toxic to the body. It is also a part of many fertilisers.
If the bans are lifted, this is exactly what we would end up eating in India as well!
I do not suppose that is the calculus driving the stoic resistance of the Indian government. Most of India still lives in villages and depends on farming for its survival. These are the very same people who have put the current government in power, and political expediency would suggest you do not want to harm that group.
Hence, trade wars it is.